Monday, August 20, 2012

About the "brightness" of our future..


Murphy: Anything bad that can happen will happen. Plan accordingly!

Somewhere around this time, by last year, I was informed that I needed to look for a topic to elaborate in order to get my Masters program diploma. They specified that the purpose of the paper to present was not only to fulfill the partial requirements of the graduation work, but must be related to your dayjob as they where interested in you doing something meaningful for your organization.

…. yeah right.

I work for the Panamanian government... more specifically, the Ministry of Health. Surrounded by doctors, who mainly think they are at the pinnacle of the human intelligence... I simply didn’t want to do ANYTHING related.

To make it short.. I ended doing this!

The idea:

Economist have claimed for years that the dynamics of the global economy are ruled by the “business cycles”.
 
As an engineer, not an economist, I got the idea, however...

Every time you hear about an economic statement... no matter where and who is coming from, it will bring something that by definition, is nothing more than a simple exponential function. Everything in the world and their mother are promoting economic growth. The system is not able to survive without it. Some economist will tell you that, in order to maintain our current level of live, we must grow at 4% at least.
I spent a good deal of time reading and finding out why is it that every government economic goal is aggressive expansion... but once that concept is understood, the big picture of our bright future does not look bright at all.

And of course I’ve god flame on this topic... mainly because every time someone get brave enough to announce to the world the forthcoming scarcity on a specific resource... there is a possible replacement as we (humans) are smart enough to find a solution for the scarcity problem.

Well... in this case, i’m not predicting anything; just saying that global GDP is money... and as it has no intrinsic value, the standard measurement is a floating point. You won’t argue with me that the 69 something trillion dollars of the global GDP doesn’t reflect the aggressive harvest of resources and energy consumption to mention some. The question is how much?


My argument:

Have you hear about the mathematic of chaos?
Sustaining an ever-expanding system that trends to infinity, on a finite environment is a recipe for chaos. I think that you’ll agree that economy of the world looks fucked up from every possible viewing angle.

Because chaos mathematics, we understand that we are not living on a “predictable world” any longer...

Economist insist that, because we can’t regulate and control the economy as we think we could, our only salvation is obeying the market and going for growth... anything else will lead to economic chaos and collapse...

didn’t it collapsed already?

… and the sad but true part of this is that it keep on growing.


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